Applicability of End Use Method for Long Term Load Forecasting of Islands

Abstract

Electric load forecasting of a nation, state or a city is very important for their growth. The consumption of electricity is directly proportional to the economic development of a region. Long term electric load forecasting gives you the idea of load requirement after 5 years or 10 years or 15 years. This forecast helps the administrators for taking action to meet the electric requirement. Accuracy of this assessment will fulfill the main objective of maintaining the supply and demand of electricity. Among the various methods of long term electric load forecasting End Use method is one of the mostly used methods. It gives good result for big states and countries which are economically sound, with rich natural recourses and well connected with other states. This work finds out the applicability of End Use method for long term load forecasting of remote islands. Anadaman Nicober Islands is taken as a case study. The result shows that when forecasting goes beyond five, six years the errors are not acceptable. This work gives the direction to the administrators and researchers to explore other methods, may be some hybrid methods for long term forecasting of Islands.